Can Likely Voter Models Be Improved?
High-profile polling failures in recent elections have drawn attention to the challenges in using surveys to predict outcomes. Our study examines various methods of determining who is a likely voter.
Obama job rating flat after midterm losses, unlike Bush, Ike, Truman
President Obama’s approval rating has barely moved in over a year and remains at 43%. In fact, the share of Americans approving of Obama has wavered between 41% and 45% in 13 consecutive Pew Research surveys dating back to September 2013.
Mixed Reactions to GOP Midterm Sweep
The public has mixed reactions to the GOP’s big midterm win: 48% say they are happy about the election outcome and as many approve as disapprove of Republican plans for the future. In addition, the public is divided over whether Obama or GOP leaders should take the lead solving problems.
5 takeaways about the 2014 Latino vote
Would Latinos turn out to vote in greater numbers this year? Would the lack of action on immigration reform by President Obama and Congress depress voter turnout, or raise it? Here are five takeaways about Latino voters in this year’s midterm elections.
Hispanics Still Favor Democrats, GOP Makes Gains in Some States
Democrats maintained a large edge among Latinos voting in the midterm elections, but in some states, Republican candidates won more than 40% of the Latino vote.
How the Faithful Voted: 2014 Preliminary Analysis
Exit poll data from the 2014 midterm elections finds the GOP making inroads among some religious constituencies that traditionally have not been as supportive of Republican candidates.
As GOP celebrates win, no sign of narrowing gender, age gaps
The overall vote share is similar to the 2010 midterm elections, and many of the key demographic divides in 2010 — particularly wide gender and age gaps — remain.
Why measuring the demographics of voters on Election Day is difficult
The two primary sources that provide insight into voter demographics use different methodologies, are released at different times, and often produce slightly different results.
No matter how tight the race, midterm voter turnout likely to remain lackluster
If history is any guide, well under half of eligible voters will come out to vote in Tuesday’s midterms.
6 facts about the electorate on midterm day
Six facts about the 2014 electorate culled from Pew Research surveys and analyses during this midterm year.