No Late Surge in Campaign Interest
The public’s interest in election news did not increase in the final days of the campaign, despite heavy news coverage. While most heard at least a little about the California proposition to legalize marijuana, a majority heard nothing about the Stewart-Colbert rally.
A Clear Rejection of the Status Quo, No Consensus about Future Policies
An older and much more conservative electorate than in 2006 and 2008 propelled the Republican Party to a broad victory in the 2010 midterm elections. But the vote was more repudiation than endorsement. Views of the Republican Party are no more positive than those of the Democratic Party.
The Latino Vote in the 2010 Elections
For the first time ever, three Latino candidates — all of them Republicans — won top statewide offices. Despite these GOP wins, Latino voters supported Democrats by nearly a two-to-one margin.
GOP Likely to Capture Control of House
Republicans continue to hold a solid lead in preferences for Tuesday’s midterm elections among likely voters — enough so as to suggest they will win control of the House. The GOP owes its lead to strong backing from independents and record-levels of engagement among its partisans.
Media Ride Electoral Wave
The midterms accounted for 38% of the total newshole, up substantially from 28% the previous week, and registering as the No. 1 story in all five media sectors.
Democrats Stirring but Fail to Match GOP Support, Engagement
As the 2010 midterm elections near, Republican engagement and enthusiasm continue at record levels, outpacing even improved Democratic showings on these indicators. The growing popularity of early voting — about a quarter of voters nationally say they plan to vote before Election Day — gives Democrats less time to make up ground and there is no indication that their voter mobilization efforts are outmatching Republican efforts.
Midterms Coverage Doubles Economy Coverage
The midterm elections have registered as the top news story for four consecutive weeks, and have accounted for fully a quarter of the overall newshole in that time, easily outdistancing the No. 2 story in that period, the economy, at 12%.
Lagging Youth Enthusiasm Could Hurt Democrats in 2010
Millennials continue to be among the strongest backers of Democratic candidates this fall, though their support for the Democratic Party has slipped since 2008. But young voters have given far less thought to the coming elections than have older voters, and this gap is larger than in previous midterms.
Possible Negatives for Candidates: Vote for Bank Bailout, Palin Support
Two factors have emerged as major potential negatives for congressional candidates: TARP and Sarah Palin. Americans are split over whether they are more likely to vote for candidates who supported the health care law.
Democrats Struggle to Avoid Wipeout from Electoral Wave
Less than two years ago, Democrats basked in the glow of an impressive political triumph. Today, they are contemplating the very real prospect of losing their House majority. What happened?