Pew Hispanic Center
A Slower Flow from Mexico?
Indicators Suggest a Recent Slowing of Migration across the U.S. Border
While short-term changes in immigration flows are difficult to measure, several indicators suggest a possible slackening in migration from Mexico since mid- 2006. The Mexican-born population in the United States has continued to increase, but the rate of growth appears to have slowed in recent months.
This assessment is based on data that indirectly reflect the pace of migration over time and are subject to statistical fluctuations, survey effects and other phenomena that limit the ability to accurately measure changes in immigration flows across short periods of time. No data offer specific measures of the number of foreign-born individuals entering the country at a given point in time.
Nonetheless, a similar pattern is evident across four indicators examined in this fact sheet: the size of the Mexican-born population living in the U.S.; the number of Hispanic immigrants employed in the U.S., particularly in the construction industry; remittance receipts reported by the Bank of Mexico; and apprehensions of people crossing illegally into the U.S. along the U.S.-Mexico border.
Overall migration flows to the U.S. -- the number of foreign-born coming to live in the U.S. -- surged at the end of the 1990s, peaked in 2000 and then fell off by more than a quarter following the 2001 recession and the slow recovery of the U.S. labor market. The size of migration flows then began to increase again in 2004. Mexicans accounted for roughly one-third of the annual flow throughout this period, and changes in the flow from Mexico closely tracked the overall trend.1
The available data suggest that the total population of Mexicans living in the U.S. grew steadily since 2004, with the total number entering the country -- both legally and illegally -- holding at relatively high levels or even increasing through mid-2006. The trend then appears to have changed towards smaller flows. Although the size of the change cannot be calculated with precision, the four indicators examined in this fact sheet all suggest less rapid growth in the first quarter of 2007 and perhaps also in the second half of 2006 compared with 2004 and 2005.
Migration flows, especially from Mexico, have been highly responsive in the past to levels of demand for new workers in the U.S. economy. However, a wide variety of factors, ranging from political conditions in sending countries to enforcement efforts by U.S. immigration authorities, can also affect the pace of immigration. The available data does not permit an assessment of which factors might be responsible for the slackening growth in migration flows from Mexico or their relative importance. This analysis does not attempt to forecast future flows, either for the short or long term.
Notes
1See "Rise, Peak and Decline: Trends in U.S. Immigration 1992-2004," Pew Hispanic Center, 2005.