Jun 24, 2014 2:11 pm

After decades of GOP support, Cubans shifting toward the Democratic Party

Cubans in the U.S. have long identified with or leaned toward the Republican Party, even as Hispanics overall have tilted Democrat. But the party affiliation of Cubans has undergone a shift over the past decade, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of survey data.

Political Affiliation Among U.S. CubansLess than half (47%) of Cuban registered voters nationwide now say they identify with or lean toward the Republican Party—down from the 64% who said the same about the GOP a decade ago, according to 2013 survey data. Meanwhile, the share of Cubans who identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party has doubled from 22% to 44% over the same time period, according to the survey of Hispanics.

The Cuban population in the U.S. is centered in Florida, home to seven-in-ten of the nation’s 2 million Cuban-origin Hispanics. In the 1960s, the state’s Cuban immigrant population boomed as many left the island after Fidel Castro’s rise to power. The concentration of Cuban voters subsequently helped push the overall Hispanic vote toward the Republican Party in the Sunshine State. In 2004, for example, Republican presidential candidate George W. Bush won 78% of the Cuban vote in Florida, compared with 56% of the state’s Hispanics overall.  Read More

Topics: Hispanic/Latino Vote, Political Party Affiliation, Race and Ethnicity, U.S. Political Parties

Jun 23, 2014 7:00 am

Five years in, recovery still underwhelms compared with previous ones

Most Americans say the economy is improving, but not too stronglyAs of this month, the U.S. economy’s recovery from the Great Recession is five years old. But given how most Americans rate it, they can be forgiven for not feeling much in the mood for cake and ice cream.

In a Pew Research Center survey from April, only 6% of Americans said the economy was recovering strongly. Two-thirds (66%) said the economy was recovering, but not very strongly; about a quarter (26%) said it wasn’t recovering at all. The same survey found that Americans’ financial self-assessment had barely budged since June 2009, when the recession officially ended: 37% rated their financial situation “excellent” or “good,” 39% “only fair,” and 23% “poor.”

Americans' Financial Self-AssessmentThat persistent economic pessimism is warranted. By several measures — gross domestic product, personal income, job growth and employment ratio — the current recovery is among the weakest on record, particularly given its duration. Unless the economy’s official scorekeepers change their minds, the recovery already has lasted 60 months — the fifth-longest expansion since the end of World War II. (Economists divide economic cycles into two phases: expansion (or recovery) and recession. The current recovery is considered to have begun in June 2009, the trough of the recession that started when the economy peaked in December 2007.)  Read More

Topics: Economic and Business News, Economic Recession, Economics and Personal Finances, National Economy

Jun 20, 2014 1:20 pm

As FIFA attempts to curb racism at the World Cup, a look at hate speech laws worldwide

Hate speech laws worldwide

Reports of racist and xenophobic slurs against players and fans have continued to emerge during the World Cup. Two fans were arrested last weekend after chanting racist remarks during the match featuring Argentina vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina.

In an attempt to combat hate speech during the tournament, FIFA and Brazilian authorities initiated an anti-racism campaign using the hashtag #SayNoToRacism. Hate speech is taken seriously in Brazil, where racist or religiously intolerant speech or actions are prohibited by law and carry penalties including imprisonment.

Brazil is not the only country with a law that penalizes hate speech. A new Pew Research analysis finds hate speech laws in 89 countries around the world (45%), according to 2012 data. In some countries, the laws protect only certain religious or social groups, while others have broader laws, covering words or actions that insult, denigrate or intimidate a person or group based on race, gender, religion, ethnicity or other traits.  Read More

Topics: Gender, Race and Ethnicity, Restrictions on Religion

Jun 20, 2014 7:00 am

Chart of the Week: Another way to see employment

FT_upshot-employment-population-ratios-trend

 

While unemployment continues to fall throughout the United States, and the economy has recovered all the jobs lost in the Great Recession, almost no one would argue that the U.S. jobs situation is where it should be. One big reason: The share of adults who actually have jobs (58.9%) is still well below its pre-recession level (62.7%).

While that’s overall trend is true in every state, there’s considerable variation in both how much employment ratios fell during the recession and how much they’ve since rebounded, as this nifty chart from The New York Times’ “The Upshot” blog shows. We liked the way it helps people readily visualize an abstract, and not overly familiar, concept over time, without using the standard trend line.

The full version orders the states from lowest employment ratio (West Virginia, 50.7%) to highest (North Dakota, 69.3%). You can also easily see which states stand out for having made the most progress in rebuilding employment (such as Utah and Maine) or where employment ratios remain near their bottoms (such as Mississippi and New Jersey).

Why, unlike in previous recoveries, has the employment ratio been stuck so long? Economists and other analysts offer a variety of answers, from more formerly employed people giving up on looking for work to a surge in Baby Boomer retirements. But as a Wells Fargo report (referenced by Vox) notes, other advanced economies are facing similar (though less dramatic) declines in employment.

Category: Chart of the Week

Topics: National Economy, Work and Employment

Jun 19, 2014 11:35 am

‘March for Marriage’ rally reflects steadfast opposition to gay marriage among evangelical Christians

At a time when polls show a growing number of Americans favor same-sex marriage, a coalition of groups opposing gay marriage are holding a “March for Marriage” today in Washington, D.C., to demonstrate what organizers call a “deep and wide support for the definition of marriage as the union of one man and one woman,” according to National Organization for Marriage president Brian Brown.

FT_same-sex-marriage-religious-viewsThe tide of public opinion on same-sex marriage has changed rapidly. In just five years, the percentage of adults who say they oppose same-sex marriage has fallen from a majority (54%) to a minority. Today, roughly four-in-ten Americans (39%) say they oppose allowing gay and lesbian couples to wed, according to Pew Research Center polling.

But while opposition to same-sex marriage is still sizable, it is now more concentrated among a few religious groups – particularly white evangelical Protestants. (Many of the groups sponsoring today’s rally are affiliated with evangelical Christianity.)

White evangelical Protestants, many of whom belong to churches that still firmly prohibit gay marriage, tend to be much more likely to oppose same-sex marriage than the general population or other large faith groups. Indeed, seven-in-ten white evangelical Protestants say they oppose allowing gay and lesbian couples to wed. In addition, about half of African-American Protestants (49%), some of whom belong to historically black churches that are evangelical, also oppose gay marriage. Read More

Topics: Evangelical Protestants and Evangelicalism, Gay Marriage and Homosexuality

Jun 19, 2014 7:01 am

7 facts about White House press secretaries

White House press secretaries
Can you name these White House press secretaries and the presidents they served? See answers at the bottom.

In replacing Jay Carney in front of the media today, Josh Earnest becomes the 30th presidential press secretary since the post was created 85 years ago, according to Towson University professor Martha Joynt Kumar, a leading expert and author on  White House communications.

As the guard changes at the press room podium, Kumar helped Pew Research put together this collection of historical facts and figures about those whose job it is to position themselves—sometimes as a conduit, sometimes as a shield—between the commander in chief and the Fourth Estate.

1The first man to officially hold the post of press secretary was George Akerson, who served President Herbert Hoover from March 1929 until February 1931. While other presidential secretaries helped to brief reporters, Akerson was the first whose only responsibilities involved dealing with the media. Read More

Topics: Barack Obama, News Sources

Jun 18, 2014 2:50 pm

For World Refugee Day, 5 long-term refugee trends

Mervat, 31, stands outside of her tent as she holds her 9-month-old daughter, Shurouk, at a camp for Syrian refugees in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley on Tuesday, March 11, 2014. Credit: AP Photo/Bilal Hussein.
Mervat, 31, stands outside of her tent as she holds her 9-month-old daughter, Shurouk, at a camp for Syrian refugees in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley on Tuesday, March 11, 2014. Credit: AP Photo/Bilal Hussein.

Unrest in Ukraine, Syria and Iraq has prompted renewed attention about refugees across the world in recent weeks. But in the face of such news stories, long-term refugee trends are often overlooked.

According to the 1951 Refugee Convention, refugees flee their home country because of political, ethnic or religious tensions. Although millions of people may move within a country to avoid conflict and violence (they are often described as internally displaced people), people must cross international borders to be counted as refugees. (And although generations of Palestinian refugees are counted as part of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees in the Near East, Palestinian refugees are not included in estimates by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.)

Using trend data from the UNHCR for 2002 to 2012, here are five facts – in marking of World Refugee Day on June 20 – that shed light on the changing shape of refugee populations around the world.

1The number of refugees has fallen from its 1990s peak.

Refugee population trends

The number of refugees living in a foreign country who are either waiting to return or be resettled peaked in the early 1990s at about 18 million. During the 1990s peak, most of the world’s refugees were leaving Afghanistan, Iraq and other countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2012, Afghanistan, Somalia, Iraq and Syria were top countries of origin for refugees. But despite the ongoing conflicts in these countries, the number of refugees around the world is considerably less than it was two decades ago, numbering between 10 million and 12 million in recent years.

Read More

Topics: Migration, Wars and International Conflicts

Jun 18, 2014 1:45 pm

The Sunni-Shia divide: Where they live, what they believe and how they view each other

The ongoing and intensifying conflict in Iraq has fallen – at least in part – along sectarian lines, with the Sunni Muslim militant group ISIS (the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria) advancing against the Shia Muslim-led Iraqi government and Shia militias. Sectarian affiliation has played a role in the politics of the region for hundreds of years.

Where Sunni and Shia Muslims populationsIran and Iraq are two of only a handful of countries that have more Shias than Sunnis. While it is widely assumed that Iraq has a Shia majority, there is little reliable data on the exact Sunni-Shia breakdown of the population there, particularly since refugees arriving in Iraq due to the conflict in Syria or leaving Iraq due to its own turmoil may have affected the composition of Iraq’s population.

The few available survey measures of religious identity in Iraq suggest that about half the country is Shia. Surveys by ABC News found between 47% and 51% of the country identifying as Shia between 2007 and 2009, and a Pew Research survey conducted in Iraq in late 2011 found that 51% of Iraqi Muslims said they were Shia (compared with 42% saying they were Sunni).

Neighboring Iran is home to the world’s largest Shia population: Between 90% and 95% of Iranian Muslims (66-70 million people) were Shias in 2009, according to our estimate from that year.

Their shared demographic makeup may help explain Iran’s support for Iraq’s Shia-dominated government led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

Read More

Topics: Middle East and North Africa, Muslims and Islam

Jun 18, 2014 10:31 am

Where Christian churches, other religions stand on gay marriage

The Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.) plans to hold a historic vote on same-sex marriage this week that could reverberate beyond the church’s nearly 2 million members. Church leaders gathering in Detroit are expected to decide as early as today whether to allow gay marriage or to continue to prohibit it, a move some Christian leaders believe could influence other centrist and liberal mainline Protestant churches as they also grapple with the issue.

FT_14.06.18_ChurchesOnSSM (1)

In the last two decades, several religious groups have moved to allow same-sex couples to marry within their traditions. This includes the Reform and Conservative Jewish movements, Unitarian Universalist Association and the United Church of Christ. Read More

Topics: Christians and Christianity, Gay Marriage and Homosexuality

Jun 17, 2014 11:00 am

Why timely, reliable data on mass killings is hard to find

Mass-KillingsThe United States has experienced a spate of public killing sprees in recent weeks. In June alone, shootings at Seattle Pacific University, Reynolds High School in suburban Portland, and in Las Vegas left a total of five people dead and three wounded (excluding the shooters). Last month, a 22-year-old college student in southern California stabbed his three roommates to death, then shot and killed three more people and wounded 13 others before shooting himself.

Which makes us wonder: Are school shootings and other killing sprees really more common nowadays? The available data don’t offer clear evidence, due to issues of timeliness, reliability or both.

The most frequently cited source for data on mass killings is the Federal Bureau of Investigation, yet it falls short in several ways. The agency relies on voluntary reporting by local police agencies; as a result, USA Today reported last year, the FBI data had only about a 61% accuracy rate — missing some crimes entirely and miscategorizing others. Besides such errors, Florida doesn’t report homicides to the FBI at all, and Nebraska and Washington, D.C., only started doing so in 2009.

more comprehensive database maintained by USA Today lists 38 public mass killings since 2006; all but four were shootings. Since 2006, the number of public mass killings each year has varied between 3 and 6. The year 2012, which saw both the Aurora, Colo., and Newtown, Conn., massacres, had by far the most total fatalities (63). Read More

Topics: Criminal Justice, Violence and Society