May 26, 2009

Republican Party Recession

23%

The GOP has lost about a quarter of its base over the past five years.

An analysis of four months of polling during 2009 — over 7,000 interviews — finds that fewer than a quarter of Americans currently identify themselves as Republican, down from 30% in 2004. In total, the GOP has lost roughly a quarter of its base since 2004. Not all of the Republican’s loss has been the Democrats gain, though. The largest increase in party affiliation has been among independents, who made up 30% of the public in 2004 but who now account for 36%. Currently, 35% of Americans identify with the Democratic Party, up from 33% in 2004. Examining individual monthly surveys — not the aggregated interviews over 2009 — also shows an increasing number identifying as independent. In a survey in December 2008, 30% identified themselves as independents; that number rose to 39% in an April 2009 survey as both Democrats and Republicans saw declines in their identification numbers. Read More