As Democrats gather in Denver, many may be wondering why the presidential race has tightened. An analysis of polling data shows that that while voters are unhappy with the state of the nation and give low ratings to President Bush, the GOP base has started to solidify around McCain. Polling also finds that Obama’s extensive media coverage may be a mixed blessing.
A Closer Look at the Parties in 2008
As the 2008 conventions approach, the Democratic Party’s advantage in party identification remains as large as it has been over the past two decades, and the Democratic Party’s image remains substantially more positive than the GOP’s.
The Power of the Protest Vote
Don’t be surprised if third or fourth party presidential candidates garner enough votes in November to make a difference
Should Women Worry Obama?
Obama is doing better among young and independent women than either of the last two Democratic nominees, but many older Democratic women remain undecided.
Cell Phones and the 2008 Vote: An Update
The latest Pew Research Center national survey, including a sample of 503 adults on a cell phone, finds that the overall estimate of voter presidential preference is modestly affected by whether or not the cell phone respondents are included.
Belief that Obama is Muslim is Durable, Bipartisan – but Most Likely to Sway Democratic Votes
The New Yorker magazine’s controversial cover has renewed focus on persistent public misperceptions of Sen. Barack Obama’s faith.
Gay Marriage Is Back On The Radar For Republicans, Evangelicals
Overall opposition to same-sex marriages has declined somewhat but the issue has regained importance among some conservative groups.
Obama Backers Cool to Clinton as Running Mate
While a majority of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters (53%) favor a so-called “Dream Ticket,” fully 54% of Obama supporters do not want Clinton chosen as his running mate.
The Iraq Challenge
Soaring concern about the economy has displaced the Iraq War as the top priority issue among voters. Ambivalent and contradictory public opinions further complicate the role that the conflict will play in the November election.
The Widening Gap
While Barack Obama’s appeal to the young coincides with their increasing Democratic alignment, older voters do not show the greater allegiance to the GOP that might explain their relative reluctance to support him.