Voter Turnout and Congressional Change
In recent decades, there have been three basic ways that turnout has worked to produce the sort of “big wave” midterm that the Democrats are hoping for next week.
Karl Rove’s Ground War Challenge
In an election environment which seems to favor the Democrats in so many ways, the Republicans continue to hold two strong cards; they have more money and they are better at getting out the vote than are the Democrats.
Lack of Competition in Elections Fails to Stir Public
The concern among some politicians and political experts over the lack of competitiveness in U.S. elections is generally not shared by the public. Moreover, voters appear to lack a clear sense of whether the elections in their own House districts are competitive or not.
Are National Polls Reliable Predictors of Midterm Elections?
National elections are the high season for pollsters and with Election Day now less than two weeks away, new polls on the fight for Congress are being released nearly every day. Commonly, pollsters use something called the “generic ballot” to assess the state of the congressional race. Just how accurate is the “generic ballot” in predicting election results?
Cell-Only Voters Not Very Different
Political pollsters continue to cast a wary eye on the growing number of Americans who use only a cell phone and have no landline. The Pew Research Center estimates that this group now constitutes one-in-ten adults. But three Pew surveys of cell-only Americans this year have found that their absence from landline surveys is not creating a measurable bias in the bottom-line findings.
Can Safe Seats Save the Republicans?
One of the biggest political questions in the final weeks of this Congressional campaign is whether the national trend in support for Democratic candidates is big enough to overcome the safe-seat redistricting that in recent years has led to fewer and fewer seats turning over in Congress.
Democrats Hold Double-Digit Lead in Competitive Districts
The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press shows that Iraq continues to be the dominant issue for voters. More than four-in-ten voters (45%) view the situation in Iraq as the most important, or second most important issue in their vote, the highest percentage for the six issues tested.
Journalists and the Jail Cell
After declining in the late 1990’s, there has been an increase in recent years in the number of journalists sent to prison for not revealing confidential sources. This Project for Excellence in Journalism report documents this trend and analyzes the conflicted public attitudes about the journalistic practice of using confidential sources.
Evangelicals and the GOP: An Update
White evangelical Protestants have become the most important part of the Republican Party’s electoral base, making up nearly one-in-four of those who identify with the GOP and vote for its candidates. This analysis examines the current state of evangelical support for the GOP, in light of the approaching 2006 elections.
Who Votes, Who Doesn’t and Why
A new survey finds large differences between Americans who are not registered to vote or vote only rarely and those who cast ballots at least some of the time. These two groups at the bottom of the voting participation scale are much less likely than regular or intermittent voters to believe that voting will make much of a difference.