The Growing Gap between Landline and Dual Frame Election Polls
A new analysis of Pew Research Center pre-election surveys conducted this year finds that support for Republican candidates was significantly higher in samples based only on landlines than in dual frame samples that combined landline and cell phone interviews. The difference in the margin among likely voters this year is about twice as large as in 2008.
A Clear Rejection of the Status Quo, No Consensus about Future Policies
An older and much more conservative electorate than in 2006 and 2008 propelled the Republican Party to a broad victory in the 2010 midterm elections. But the vote was more repudiation than endorsement. Views of the Republican Party are no more positive than those of the Democratic Party.
The Party of Nonvoters
There will almost certainly be far more nonvoters than voters this year. Nonvoters are younger, less educated and more financially stressed than likely voters. They are also significantly less Republican and more likely to approve of Obama’s job performance.
Independent Voters vs. Unions
Union members are one voting bloc that continues to strongly back their party’s candidates — the downside of that support is that labor unions have fallen out of favor with the broader public, including independents who will cast the decisive votes in this year’s elections.
Cell Phones and Election Polls: An Update
Data from Pew Research Center polling this year suggest that the landline-only bias is as large, and potentially even larger, than it was in 2008.
Lagging Youth Enthusiasm Could Hurt Democrats in 2010
Millennials continue to be among the strongest backers of Democratic candidates this fall, though their support for the Democratic Party has slipped since 2008. But young voters have given far less thought to the coming elections than have older voters, and this gap is larger than in previous midterms.
Democrats Struggle to Avoid Wipeout from Electoral Wave
Less than two years ago, Democrats basked in the glow of an impressive political triumph. Today, they are contemplating the very real prospect of losing their House majority. What happened?
A Static America: A Contrarian View of Current U.S. Public Opinion Trends
With predictions of a wave of Republican victories come the November elections, there has been talk of a sea change in American politics. While acknowledging that changes in political and economic conditions can produce substantial shifts in the partisan makeup of governments at all levels, the author, a long time Pew Research consultant, argues that such transformations are rarely the product of major shifts in basic American values.
Taxed Enough Already?
Despite all the animosity aimed at Washington, one usual political punching bag is actually not seen as villainous as it once was: taxes. More say they pay about the right amount in taxes than say they pay more than their fair share.
Glenn Beck, Christians and Mormons
In contrast to the Beck’s comments, it’s incorrect to say that “most” Christians do not view Mormons as Christians. However, many have mixed views about Mormonism.