U.S. Politics Oct. 30, 2008

The Element of Surprise

As recently as a month ago, this analyst and the American public itself were throwing up our hands and saying we can’t figure this one out — too many intangibles. No more.

U.S. Politics Oct. 30, 2008

Democrats Hold Party ID Edge Across Political Battleground

As shown in a series of charts, the Democratic Party now holds an advantage in several swing states, has increased its advantage in several “blue” states and cut into the GOP’s lead in some “red” states since the last presidential campaign.

U.S. Politics Oct. 17, 2008

Poll Power

Though by no means a perfect instrument, polls make it possible for more opinions, held by a broader and more representative range of citizens, to be known to the government and thus, potentially, heeded.

U.S. Politics Oct. 4, 2008

A Word about Debate Impressions

View “word clouds” of voters’ impressions of the performances of John McCain and Barack Obama in their first presidential debate based on one-word descriptions from a recent Pew survey.

U.S. Politics Oct. 1, 2008

The Bad Rap on the Bailout Bill

Members who voted against the original House bill are said to be responding to strong opposition to the rescue plan from their constituents, but that’s not what most Americans are saying.

U.S. Politics Sep. 25, 2008

Uncertain Times

In every recent election the public has accurately picked the winner by this time in the cycle. But not this year.

U.S. Politics Sep. 25, 2008

The Candidates: In a Word

View “word clouds” of voters’ impressions of the candidates based on one-word descriptions from a recent Pew survey.

U.S. Politics Sep. 23, 2008

Cell Phones and the 2008 Vote: An Update

As in two preceding tests, a new survey shows that including cell phone interviews results in slightly more support for Obama and slightly less for McCain.

U.S. Politics Sep. 11, 2008

The Bounce Effect

There is little doubt that the fall campaign begins in earnest with McCain having gained the momentum. How good an indicator is this of where the electorate is headed on Nov. 4?

U.S. Politics Aug. 25, 2008

Obama’s Challenge

As Democrats gather in Denver, many may be wondering why the presidential race has tightened. An analysis of polling data shows that that while voters are unhappy with the state of the nation and give low ratings to President Bush, the GOP base has started to solidify around McCain. Polling also finds that Obama’s extensive media coverage may be a mixed blessing.