MethodsFebruary 16, 2017

A basic question when reading a poll: Does it include or exclude nonvoters?

Opinion polls in the U.S. can address the same topic yet reach very different results. There are several reasons this can happen, but we tackle one of the most basic: Did the poll include or exclude the 45% who didn’t vote in November?

Fact TankNovember 9, 2016

Why 2016 election polls missed their mark

There is a great deal of speculation but no clear answers as to the cause of the disconnect, but there is one point of agreement: Across the board, polls underestimated Trump’s level of support.